Libya has signed a mega $20 billion, 25-year oil deal with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips, a major announcement made on January 25, 2026, at the Libyan Energy Summit in Tripoli. This partnership, entirely privately financed, aims to boost production at the Waha Oil Company to 850,000 barrels per day, potentially generating over $370 billion in revenue for the Libyan state.
A Strategic Deal for Waha Oil Company
The agreement targets the Waha Basin, one of Libya’s richest oil fields, and is based on a partnership between the National Oil Corporation (NOC), TotalEnergies, and ConocoPhillips. It is part of a broader offensive: Tripoli is also preparing deals with Chevron (exploration) and Egypt (oil services).
- Investments: Over USD 20 billion over 25 years, without recourse to public funds.
- Production target: 850,000 barrels/day for Waha, compared to current national production of 1.5 million barrels/day.
- Estimated revenues: USD 370-376 billion over the contract’s duration.
Tripoli repositions itself on the energy stage
Chaired by Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah (Government of National Accord, GNA), the summit attracted delegations from the United States (Massad Boulos, advisor to Donald Trump), France, Egypt, and other European countries, a sign of renewed interest in Libya’s reserves (48.4 billion barrels, the largest in Africa). Boulos described the event as “a springboard for Libya’s return as a global energy powerhouse.”
The NOC will soon launch a tender for oil and gas exploration, the first in 17 years (2007-2008).
Geopolitical context: fragile stability
Despite rising production (1.37 million barrels/day in 2025), Libya remains divided between the UN Government of National Accord (GNU) in Tripoli (recognized by the UN) and the forces of Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi. Major oil companies are proceeding cautiously, traumatized by the post-Gaddafi blockades (2011).
- Current production: 1.5 million barrels/day, rebounding after years of unrest.
- Risks: recurring interruptions linked to insecurity and political rivalries.
- Green transition: Dbeibah announces a renewables strategy and a “Green Libya” initiative (100 million trees).
Implications for Africa and Global Markets
This deal strengthens TotalEnergies (already established in Libya) and ConocoPhillips (returning after the expropriations of the 1980s), while positioning Tripoli as a gas/oil hub in the face of Algeria and Nigeria. For North Africa, it illustrates the return of Western majors, fueled by the Ukrainian crisis and global energy demand.
Challenges and Prospects for 2026
The agreement rests on hypothetical political stability: Haftar controls the oil fields in the east, and past blockades (2020-2022) cost the NOC billions. If the majors invest heavily, Libya could once again become a top African producer (behind Nigeria/Algeria), but the dual government remains its Achilles’ heel.
This mega-contract represents a bold gamble: transforming underutilized reserves into sustainable cash flow, despite security concerns. Tripoli is taking a big risk for 2026.
