The High Commission for Strategy and Planning (HCSP) is sounding the alarm: China is producing four times faster and at a fraction of the cost in strategic sectors such as nuclear power and aerospace, threatening the very existence of European industry and calling for tariffs of 30% or a sharp depreciation of the euro.
A Chinese “steamroller” hitting the industrial heartland
In a shocking report published on February 9, 2026, the HCSP, headed by Clément Beaune, paints a stark picture: “We are no longer facing a sectoral shock, but a systemic dynamic that calls for a profound change of approach at the European level.”
55% of EU manufacturing output is now exposed to “unsustainable” Chinese competition, rising to 70% in Germany and 60% in Italy. The traditional strongholds (automotive, chemicals, machine tools, robotics, nuclear) are directly targeted.
A European aerospace player warns: “The Chinese catch-up is following a trajectory comparable to that observed in the automotive sector.” Even worse, a nuclear industry representative testifies: “Chinese companies are able to build up to four times faster and at up to four times lower costs, with comparable quality and workplace safety standards.”
“Unsustainable” cost gaps: 30-60% Chinese advantage
The report quantifies the threat:
- Production costs: average gap of 30-40%, potentially exceeding 60% in certain segments;
- Massive Chinese investments, integrated value chains, economies of scale, undervalued renminbi, and less stringent regulatory controls.
- 25% of European exports are threatened in third-party markets, with Europe losing ground even outside the EU.
Clément Beaune insists: “Individually, most European states aren’t even middle powers. Do we want to remain a mere large market subject to the priorities of others?”
Two radical solutions proposed
Faced with this “near-existential threat,” the HCSP rejects sectoral measures (anti-dumping of cars/batteries) as “siloed” and advocates a paradigm shift.
Option 1: Generalized 30% tariff
- Measure: global tariff equivalent on Chinese imports at the European level;
- Justification: to neutralize the structural competitiveness gap;
- Obstacle: a break with the EU’s traditional free-trade doctrine.
Option 2: 20-30% depreciation of the euro against the renminbi
- Effect: to bring the euro to competitive parity with the undervalued renminbi;
- Problem: imported inflation, tensions with monetary partners (Germany), independent ECB.
Germany, the first collateral victim
Germany is the most exposed: two-thirds of its domestic production and one-third of its exports are directly threatened. The High Council for Public Health (HCSP) is calling on Berlin: “This is not a sectoral crisis, but a systemic threat.”
EU-China trade deficit: €305.8 billion in 2024, China = 21.3% of European imports.
Reactions and outlook
The report is sparking a lively debate:
- Industrialists applaud the diagnosis but consider the solutions politically explosive;
- Free-traders fear a trade war with Beijing;
- For sovereigntists, the 30% tariff would be a first step towards reindustrialization.
For the HCSP, the issue is existential: “How can Europe remain an industrial powerhouse when China produces comparable quality goods at significantly lower costs?” Without a swift and coordinated response, “the European production system risks permanently unraveling.”
The ball is in Brussels’ court: European preference, targeted protectionism, or a break with 70 years of free trade? European industry is holding its breath.
