The war in the Middle East is already weighing heavily on African economies, with a direct impact on currencies, imports, and the cost of external debt. According to African and UN institutions, 29 currencies on the continent have depreciated, while global oil prices jumped by more than 50% at the end of March 2026.
This deterioration is not only monetary: it also increases the cost of fuel, food, and fertilizers, weakening both public budgets and household purchasing power. For many African countries, already dependent on imports, the shock is quickly spreading throughout the economy.
A Heavier External Bill
When a currency depreciates, servicing debt in foreign currency becomes more expensive. This is precisely what worries African institutions, which emphasize that weak currencies mechanically increase the financial burden on indebted states.
The problem also affects essential imports. The continent is heavily dependent on products from the Middle East, particularly for energy, fertilizers, and certain foodstuffs, making African economies highly vulnerable to any sustained disruption from this region.
Energy as the primary channel
Rising oil prices act as the main conduit for the shock to reach Africa. When prices rise, importing countries see their energy bills increase, exacerbating trade deficits and putting further pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
This situation also complicates monetary policy. Central banks often have to balance defending their currency, containing inflation, and preserving growth—a particularly difficult balancing act when strategic imports become more expensive.
Agriculture and food security
The conflict is not limited to financial markets. Rising prices for fertilizers and agricultural inputs can disrupt planting campaigns and reduce yields, with cascading effects on local food markets.
For the most vulnerable households, this quickly translates into a rise in the cost of living. Regional institutions are therefore warning of the risk of worsened food insecurity if tensions persist beyond several months.
African growth under threat
The organizations that issued the warning estimate that a prolonged conflict could reduce African growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2026. This figure may seem modest, but it is significant in a context where several countries are already seeking to stabilize their public finances and revive investment.
The effects will not be uniform. Net exporters of oil or gold may benefit somewhat from the price increases, but for the majority of importing countries, the overall impact remains negative. The fragility of economies most exposed to imports makes the shock particularly severe in sub-Saharan Africa.
What levers are available to governments?
Experts are calling for rapid responses on several fronts: fuel, targeted social protection, food security, and regional coordination. The aim is to limit the transmission of the shock to domestic prices and to protect the most vulnerable households.
In the longer term, reducing dependence on energy and food imports remains the real solution. But in the short term, governments will primarily have to operate with limited fiscal space in a more unstable global environment.
