The war in Iran and the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are causing a global shortage of nitrogen fertilizers, directly threatening upcoming harvests in West Africa, particularly for cocoa and cotton.

Geopolitical Context and Fertilizer Crisis

The conflict involving Iran has led to a sharp reduction in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade (urea, ammonia, phosphates) passes.

Fertilizer exports from the Gulf, a key production and transit zone for Africa, Asia, and Latin America, are disrupted, causing prices to soar and delivery times to lengthen.

Why West Africa is on the front line

Many West African countries remain heavily dependent on imports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, as local production is concentrated in only a few African countries (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, etc.).

The shock comes at the height of the agricultural season preparation period, leaving little time to find alternatives or renegotiate contracts, especially in countries with limited budgetary resources.

Key sectors threatened: cocoa, cotton, and cereals

Fertilizers directly determine cocoa and cotton yields, two pillars of West African export economies: Côte d’Ivoire for cocoa, Mali and Burkina Faso for cotton, and also Senegal, which has a tight agricultural calendar.

The cocoa sector is already weakened by several years of aging plantations, limited fertilizer use, insufficient investment, and high price volatility, making any further increase in input costs particularly dangerous.

From Field to Plate: An Economic and Social Shock

The surge in fertilizer prices is increasing farmers’ production costs, as well as those for transportation and insurance, thus raising the price of the entire agricultural value chain.

In the medium term, the potential decline in yields could reduce export volumes, weaken trade balances, and, above all, exacerbate food security risks in a region where resilience remains limited.

Initial Responses and Paths to Resilience

Some countries are beginning to react: Ghana, for example, is mobilizing stocks and distributing fertilizers to support producers, while several governments are approaching major traders to secure volumes.

In the longer term, the crisis is reigniting the debate on the need to develop regional fertilizer production capacity, diversify suppliers, and accelerate sustainable intensification policies (organic fertilizers, efficient use, varietal improvement) to reduce dependence on geopolitical shocks.