The world’s oceans are undergoing a profound reconfiguration. Since November 2023, one question has been paramount for all players in international trade: how to transport goods between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East without passing through conflict zones? The answer, now practically the norm, can be summed up in a few words: bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
A Crisis That Shows No Longer-Term Constraint
It all began with the Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea, launched in November 2023 in solidarity with the Palestinians in the Israeli-Gaza conflict. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a strategic passage linking Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal, has become a very high-risk corridor for commercial vessels, particularly those with ties to American or Israeli interests.
The maritime industry’s response was swift and massive. Since the end of 2023, the majority of trade between Asia and Europe has been diverted to the Cape of Good Hope, at the southern tip of Africa. In just a few weeks, traffic via this alternative route had surged by 89%, according to UNCTAD, while the volume transiting through the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait had halved by the end of March 2024.
The 2026 Escalation: A New Deal
Just when the crisis seemed to be settling into a kind of status quo, a new military escalation in the Middle East in early March 2026 further exacerbated the situation. Israeli-American strikes in Iran triggered an immediate response from the maritime sector: CMA CGM, the French container shipping giant, ordered all its vessels in the Persian Gulf to seek shelter and suspended all its shipping lines to the region.
Transit through the Suez Canal is now suspended until further notice. Ships are being rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope, adding several thousand kilometers to the journey. The German company Hapag-Lloyd has also suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil production passes each year. In total, 24 CMA CGM vessels are directly affected by these emergency measures.
The Cost of the Diversion
The economic consequences of this major diversion are considerable:
Extended Delays. Circumnavigating Africa adds up to 10 days per voyage, inevitably lengthening all delivery times and disrupting global supply chains.
Increased Fuel Consumption. According to data collected by industry players, fuel consumption has increased by approximately 18% on these longer routes. A large 20,000 TEU container ship also incurs up to an additional $400,000 per voyage under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) when it bypasses Africa.
Freight rates under pressure. Global demand for ships has increased by 3% overall, and by 12% for container ships alone. This pressure on the available fleet is driving freight rates upward, with direct repercussions on import and export costs for businesses.
Losses for the Suez Canal. Egypt is bearing the brunt of the consequences of this diversion. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stated in March 2025 that monthly revenue losses related to the Suez Canal amount to approximately $800 million, with an estimated annual loss of $7 billion.
Africa: Big Loser or Big Winner?
The paradox of this crisis is that it is reshuffling the geographical map of global trade, and Africa finds itself at the heart of this reshaping. Unexpected opportunities are emerging. Countries like Madagascar, Mauritius, Namibia, and Tanzania, strategically positioned on the new maritime routes linking Asia to Europe, are experiencing an unprecedented surge in port activity. North Africa, for its part, could benefit from a dynamic of foreign direct investment, attracted by its proximity to the major European and Gulf economic blocs.
But there are also increased vulnerabilities. South African ports, Durban in particular, are facing growing congestion. East African countries like Djibouti and Sudan, whose foreign trade is heavily dependent on the Suez Canal, are directly feeling the repercussions of these disruptions.
A Systemic Challenge for Global Trade
Beyond the figures, the entire architecture of international trade is being called into question. Major transshipment hubs—Singapore, Mediterranean ports—are under pressure from exploding demand for services. Small island states and least developed countries (LDCs) are the most vulnerable, as they have fewer levers to absorb rising costs.
UNCTAD estimates that if this situation persists, global consumer prices could increase by 0.6% by the end of 2025-2026, a seemingly modest figure, but with real cumulative effects for fragile economies.
Towards a New Maritime Normal?
Experts are unequivocal: rounding the Cape of Good Hope is no longer a temporary emergency measure. With the escalation of March 2026, it has become the new operational norm for a large part of the global fleet.
The question is no longer whether shipowners use this route, but for how long and at what cost. In a world where geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade maps, the Red Sea is no longer the almost obligatory passage it was just two years ago. The Cape of Good Hope, once a relic of 15th-century Portuguese explorations, has once again become what it was: the maritime crossroads of the world.
