The aviation sector in Africa is experiencing a marked recovery and is expected to generate a profit in 2025, but it remains a “small” global market, facing high costs, weak infrastructure, and limited connectivity. Despite its potential driven by demographics and economic growth, Africa still only captures about 2 to 3% of global air traffic, far below its population size.

A still marginal but growing market

Africa represents only about 2 to 3% of global passenger traffic, while it accounts for nearly 18% of the world’s population.

In 2023, African airlines transported approximately 85 to 160 million passengers, depending on the region, a very modest share compared to the major markets of Europe, Asia, or North America.

Traffic is expected to grow by 15% in 2024, reaching approximately 98 million passengers for African airlines, thus exceeding the pre-Covid level of 2019.

Key figures for profitability and outlook

African companies are expected to generate an overall profit of approximately $200 million in 2024, which corresponds to a very low margin and a profit of approximately $0.50 per passenger, compared to over $7 on average worldwide.

The sector’s growth is long-term: projections suggest a possible tripling of African passenger traffic by 2050, reaching around 300 million travelers, driven by the continent’s economic and demographic growth.

In the first months of 2025, passenger demand in Africa increased by approximately 9% compared to 2024, a rate higher than the global average, confirming the market’s latent dynamism.

High Costs and an Unfavorable Economic Environment

The operating costs of an airline in Africa are significantly higher than the global average: fuel is on average 15 to 20% more expensive, and taxes, fees, and navigation charges can add up to 10 to 30% in additional costs.

This cost structure is reflected in ticket prices, which remain high. for populations with low average incomes, making air travel a service still largely perceived as a luxury.

African airlines must also contend with difficult macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions: conflicts that lengthen routes, security risks, and the fragility of some national currencies.

Limited infrastructure and insufficient connectivity

Airports and air navigation infrastructure are unevenly developed across the continent, with capacity sometimes insufficient to absorb strong demand growth.

Intra-African connectivity remains weak: a minority of connections involve flights between African countries, while a large proportion of international passengers travel via non-African airlines (European, Gulf, or others).

The lack of full and effective implementation of the liberalization of African airspace (traffic rights, single sky) limits network integration and cost reductions for passengers.

Safety, governance, and reform initiatives

The continent has made progress in certain safety areas, with no hull losses For certain types of aircraft over several years, accident rates remain generally higher than the global average.

Sector governance and the financial health of several national companies remain fragile, with business models often dependent on public support and vulnerable to external shocks.

Initiatives such as IATA’s “Focus Africa” seek to improve safety, infrastructure, connectivity, sustainability, and skills development, in order to transform the potential of African aviation into a true engine of growth and regional integration.