Madagascar and its neighbors are preparing

From September 16 to 19, 2025, the 14ᵉ Seasonal Forecasting Forum for the Southwest Indian Ocean brought together experts from seven countries.

The Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) organized at the same time the 3ᵉ session of the steering committee of the Hydromet project. According to the official press release, the participants discussed climate trends for the 2025-2026 summer season and ways to use weather data to protect local populations and economies.

The region remains exposed to many dangers: cyclones, floods, droughts, heat waves and marine submersions. These risks are intensifying due to limited structures, old tools and a lack of technical and institutional capacities.

The Hydromet project, funded by AFD, the European Union and the Green Climate Fund, aims to improve the resilience of countries to climate change. According to the analyses presented at the forum, the cyclone season could reach or exceed normal. The forecast indicates 9 to 14 tropical systems, of which at least 6 could develop into cyclones. The Awo storm, which occurred on August 7, illustrates an early start to the season.

The cyclones are expected to form mainly in the east of the basin and follow an east-west axis, which directly threatens Madagascar, Mozambique and other islands in the region. Temperatures will often exceed 30 ° C. In the north, the beginning of the season could remain dry before a return to normal. In the south, rainfall is expected to remain around seasonal averages.

The steering committee has planned to quickly install new meteorological equipment, in particular radars, to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. A data exchange protocol has also been proposed in order to strengthen regional cooperation and support planning in sectors such as agriculture, health and spatial planning.