In early 2026, Tunisia’s National Observatory of Agriculture reports an unprecedented surplus in the food trade balance, largely fuelled by booming 2025-2026 olive-oil exports, even as export revenues are squeezed by lower global prices.

In Q1 2026, Tunisia’s National Observatory of Agriculture (ONAGRI) reported that the country’s food trade balance had moved back into surplus, mainly thanks to a surge in olive-oil sales on international markets. The Ministry of Agriculture stressed that this surplus, illustrated by a positive balance of around  798 million  dinars, is first and foremost the result of strong growth in olive-oil exports. The national news agency underlined that olive oil alone has been decisive in lifting the agri-food trade balance back into positive territory at the start of 2026.

This temporary improvement in the food balance comes as Tunisia posts successive strong olive-oil seasons. This confirms the product’s role as the main external buffer for an agri-food sector exposed to rising import costs for cereals and sugar. The Ministry of Trade notes that the widening surplus coincides with tighter controls on non-essential food imports and a sharp increase in olive-oil exports. Recent trade data nonetheless show that falling international olive-oil prices are weighing on overall export revenues despite higher shipped volumes.

A 2025-2026 season driven by volume

According to figures released by ONAGRI at the end of March 2026, Tunisia’s olive-oil exports recorded a strong increase over the first four months of the 2025-2026 campaign, from November 2025 to February 2026, confirming the momentum built up in the last quarter of 2025. Data presented at a follow-up meeting on the olive-oil season show that around  108,000 tonnes  of olive oil were exported in the last quarter of 2025 alone, including  50,000 tonnes  in December.

The Ministry of Agriculture reports that over the first six months of the 2025-2026 campaign, olive-oil export receipts reached about  3,643.8 million  dinars, compared with  2,442.4 million  dinars in the same period of the previous season, an increase close to 50%. An international briefing at the same time estimated revenues from the campaign at around  670 million  euros, underlining the scale of olive oil’s contribution to the country’s external accounts.

Olive oil as the structural anchor of the food balance

Recent trade statistics indicate that in 2025 olive oil remained Tunisia’s leading food export, accounting for more than half of total agri-food export earnings, even though the decline in international prices compressed unit export values. Technical reports from ONAGRI also highlight Tunisia’s growing position on the organic-olive-oil segment, where export volumes have been rising steadily.

The authorities point out that the national strategy aims to capitalise on this agricultural asset by increasing the share of bottled and branded oil, diversifying export outlets beyond the European Union, and raising local value added through investment in crushing and bottling capacity. A recent study of the olive-oil value chain nonetheless stresses the country’s heavy reliance on bulk exports and the sensitivity of Tunisia’s agri-food trade balance to price shocks on a small number of destination markets.

Key watch-points for investors

Government economic departments judge that maintaining a food-trade surplus will depend as much on sustaining high olive-oil export volumes as on managing imports of cereals and competing vegetable oils. European Commission data show that Tunisia’s agri-food exports to the EU, dominated by vegetable oils and olives, have risen in value in recent years, deepening interdependence between the two partners.

For financial stakeholders, the coming months will hinge on Tunisian operators’ ability to secure export contracts for 2026-2027, capture a larger share of the higher-margin bottled-oil market and step up investment in modernising mills and upgrading quality certification. The consolidation of the agri-food surplus driven by olive oil will therefore remain a key indicator of Tunisia’s external resilience in a context of pressure on the balance of payments.