Motorists could soon benefit from cheaper pump prices, with prices approaching 1.50 EUR per liter. This outlook is based on a combination of economic and geopolitical factors influencing the global oil market.
A downward trend in crude oil prices
Since the beginning of 2025, the price of a barrel of Brent crude has seen a notable decline, falling from approximately USD 82 in January to USD 71 in March. This decline is mainly attributed to an increase in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which added one million barrels per day in February, as well as a slowdown in global demand, particularly in China.
How does the strengthening of the euro affect fuel prices?
The strengthening of the euro against the dollar has a direct and significant effect on lowering fuel prices in the eurozone. Since oil is purchased in dollars on international markets, a stronger euro makes it possible to buy the same barrel of oil at a lower cost in euros, thereby reducing the price at the pump.
In concrete terms, a 10-cent change in the euro/dollar exchange rate can increase the price of a liter of fuel by 4 to 6 cents. For example, if the dollar weakens against the euro, the cost of oil expressed in euros decreases, leading to lower fuel prices for the end consumer.
This influence has been observed recently: in April 2025, the strengthening of the euro contributed to an additional 2 to 3 cents per liter drop in the prices of diesel and unleaded fuel, in addition to the decline linked to the fall in oil prices. Thus, the strengthening of the euro acts as a significant downward factor on fuel prices in Europe.
Economic Impacts on Consumers
Lower fuel prices have several positive economic impacts for consumers.
Increased purchasing power: Households spend less on fuel, which frees up budget for other purchases, strengthening confidence and stimulating consumption in other sectors of the economy.
Reduced transportation costs: Transporters (buses, trucks) see their costs reduced, which can limit the rise in the prices of consumer goods, particularly essential products such as food. This can curb inflation on these products.
Differentiated impact by income: Low-income households are more sensitive to lower fuel prices. This translates into a greater reduction in their fuel consumption and a more pronounced impact on their budget.
Impact on the overall economy: A sustained drop in fuel prices can improve the competitiveness of businesses, especially in energy-intensive sectors, and support economic growth.
