Tunisia is poised to achieve a bumper cereal harvest for the 2024/2025 season, marking a turning point after several years of drought and low yields.
Production forecasts and favorable factors
According to forecasts, total cereal production could exceed 18 to 20 million quintals, an increase of more than 58% compared to the previous season. This improvement is mainly due to very favorable climatic conditions, notably abundant rainfall between November 2024 and March 2025, which allowed for good land preparation and optimal crop growth.
The area planted to cereals also increased, reaching nearly 1 million hectares for the 2024/2025 season, compared to 972,000 hectares the previous year. Detailed forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate production at 1.18 million tons for wheat and 272,000 to 500,000 tons for barley, depending on the source. This represents almost three times the previous season’s production.
Impact on Imports and Food Security
This record harvest should significantly reduce cereal imports, particularly wheat and barley, which weigh heavily on the Tunisian trade balance. Wheat imports could decrease by 10% and barley imports by 40% compared to the previous year.
Tunisia imports an average of 22 million quintals of cereals per year, mainly soft wheat for bread making. The 2025 harvest should therefore alleviate this dependence and strengthen the country’s food security.
Logistics and Storage
Faced with this exceptional production, the national collection and storage capacity has been strengthened, reaching 7.8 million quintals. This includes the use of temporary open-air storage, governed by strict technical standards to ensure grain quality.
Significant logistical efforts are being deployed to anticipate the high production, including collaboration with collectors to identify new storage locations and the use of tarpaulins and boards to protect the grain.
Support for Producers
The authorities are maintaining a special premium to support producers, with the aim of stimulating national production and encouraging the continued expansion of cultivated areas.
The 2024/2025 cereal season promises to be historic for Tunisia, with sharply rising yields thanks to favorable weather conditions, an increase in cultivated areas, and strengthened logistics management. This record harvest should help reduce dependence on imports and move towards greater food self-sufficiency.
