The Republic of Congo is entering a new political cycle under unprecedented economic pressure. While President Denis Sassou Nguesso has been re-elected with a landslide victory, attention is now turning to the health of public finances, severely weakened by a public debt that is now approaching 100% of GDP, according to the latest assessments by the International Monetary Fund.

A Debt Level Nearing 100% of GDP

The IMF estimates that the Republic of Congo’s public debt reached approximately 97.2% of GDP at the end of 2025, thus slipping just below the symbolic 100% threshold.

This level places the country in a highly vulnerable position, as growth remains moderate, around 2.4% in 2025, and dependence on oil continues to weigh heavily on macroeconomic stability.

IMF: Sustainability Still in Balance, But High Risks

The IMF acknowledges that Congo’s repayment capacity remains “adequate” under current scenarios, but warns of several risks:

• a further decline in crude oil prices,
• a contraction in demand for Congolese debt by regional banks, and
• the persistence of high budget deficits.

The non-hydrocarbon primary deficit widened to 8.7% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2025, illustrating the fragility of the tax base and the heavy reliance on oil revenues.

Debt: A Debt Weighing on Reserves and Investments

Behind the debt curve lies increasing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and fiscal space.

Some Congolese authorities, including Minister Christian Yoka, recognize that the debt burden is considerable and aim to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 70% or less within five years.

To achieve this objective, it will be necessary to:

• reduce the size of the public deficit,
• further diversify non-oil tax revenues, and
• strengthen discipline in granting new loans, particularly domestic ones.

After the presidential election: more political stability, but not necessarily profound reforms

The 2026 presidential election took place in a context of apparent political stability, but experts emphasize that the real test begins now, with the implementation of structural reforms.

The Congo is reaching the end of its program with the IMF, launched in 2022, which allowed for a partial rescheduling of the debt and stricter control of public spending.

The challenge for the new term is therefore to:

• maintain budgetary discipline without causing an overly abrupt social slowdown,
• support reforms in the financial sector and debt management, and
• strengthen the transparency and governance of public borrowing, which has been further undermined by debates about past “hidden debts.”

A 2026 Budget Focused on Consolidation, but with Limitations

The 2026 budget demonstrates a commitment to consolidation, with targeted spending adjustments and an emphasis on streamlining public investments.

However, IMF staff report that fiscal discipline weakened in 2025, particularly under pressure from financing between the government and local banks, as well as tensions in the regulated Treasury securities markets.

In other words, even if the rhetoric is geared towards caution, the operational reality remains hampered by:

• heavy dependence on oil,
• weak economic diversification,
• and persistently high public spending.

Key Reforms Expected from the New Mandate

To achieve a sustainable exit from debt distress, the IMF and several observers suggest several priorities:

Strengthening non-oil revenues:

improving tax collection, combating tax evasion, and broadening the tax base.

Diversify the economy:

Encourage agriculture, the formalized informal sector, tourism, and services to reduce dependence on crude oil.

Improve public debt management:

Prioritize loans with concessional terms, limit financing at excessively high market rates, and strengthen the monitoring of commitments (particularly domestic ones).

Enhance transparency:

Make public the amounts and terms of loans, especially those contracted with private or foreign entities, to avoid the risks of accounting manipulation.

2026–2030 Outlook: Under the watchful eye of the IMF

In the coming years, the Congo is expected to remain under close IMF supervision, which will continue to monitor its debt, deficit, and growth trajectory.

If the authorities manage to maintain a prudent adjustment, the country could gradually reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio toward the 70% target, while securing its access to regional markets and multilateral financing.

Conversely, in the event of a further decline in oil prices or a relaxation of budgetary controls, debt sustainability could be called into question, with direct consequences for monetary stability, investor confidence, and the capacity to finance social spending.

Conclusion for investors and economic actors

For investors and economic actors, the Congo of 2026 represents a territory of risks but also of opportunities:

• on the one hand, high debt and dependence on oil create structural volatility;
• on the other hand, the announced reforms and the desire for diversification could pave the way for new dynamic sectors (agribusiness, energy, services, etc.).

From the perspective of African macroeconomic analysis, the Congolese case clearly illustrates the limitations of hydrocarbon-driven growth and the need for a more balanced approach to growth and debt sustainability, particularly in the CEMAC zone.