{"id":77856,"date":"2024-07-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/moodys-abaisse-la-note-du-kenya-de-b3-a-caa1\/"},"modified":"2024-07-10T15:00:37","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T12:00:37","slug":"moodys-abaisse-la-note-du-kenya-de-b3-a-caa1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/fr\/economie-fr\/moodys-abaisse-la-note-du-kenya-de-b3-a-caa1\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody’s abaisse la note du Kenya de B3 \u00e0 Caa1"},"content":{"rendered":"

L’agence de notation Moody’s abaisse la note d’\u00e9metteur \u00e0 long terme en devises locales et \u00e9trang\u00e8res du Kenya de B3 \u00e0 Caa1, avec une perspective n\u00e9gative. Cette d\u00e9gradation entra\u00eene l\u2019\u00e9conomie dans une \u00e8re de capacit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre une consolidation budg\u00e9taire bas\u00e9e sur les recettes. Cette d\u00e9cision a \u00e9galement des implications plus larges sur la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique \u00e0 court terme du pays.<\/b><\/p>\n

Perspectives \u00e9conomiques n\u00e9gatives pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie k\u00e9nyane<\/h2>\n

L’\u00e9conomie majeure de l’Afrique de l’Est se trouve \u00e0 un moment crucial apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision de l’agence de notation Moody’s d’abaisser ses notes<\/b> d’\u00e9metteur \u00e0 long terme en devises locales et \u00e9trang\u00e8res de B3 \u00e0 Caa1, avec une perspective n\u00e9gative.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Cette d\u00e9gradation intervient une semaine seulement apr\u00e8s trois semaines de manifestation nationale. Cette opposition a forc\u00e9 le gouvernement \u00e0 abandonner le projet de loi de finances 2024<\/a>. Tout en ouvrant la voie \u00e0 une \u00e8re de capacit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite de l’\u00e9conomie \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre un assainissement budg\u00e9taire bas\u00e9 sur les recettes. Ces perspectives n\u00e9gatives ont \u00e9galement des implications plus larges pour la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique \u00e0 court terme du pays, selon Moody’s.<\/p>\n

D\u00e9fis budg\u00e9taires du Kenya dans un contexte de perspectives n\u00e9gatives<\/h2>\n

La d\u00e9gradation de la note de Moody’s marque le renversement de la politique fiscale du gouvernement k\u00e9nyan, qui a pr\u00e9f\u00e9r\u00e9 diminuer les d\u00e9penses pour r\u00e9duire le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire actuel. Ce changement de politique, motiv\u00e9 par des tensions sociales accrues, marque un \u00e9norme \u00e9cart par rapport aux strat\u00e9gies budg\u00e9taires pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Ces derni\u00e8res mesures misaient sur des mesures visant \u00e0 augmenter les recettes.<\/p>\n

Le projet de loi de finances 2024 visait \u00e0 augmenter les recettes de 2,69 milliards USD, soit 1,9 % du PIB<\/b>. Mais ces plans ont \u00e9t\u00e9 abandonn\u00e9s au profit d’une r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses de 1,38 milliard USD et d’une augmentation des emprunts. En cons\u00e9quence, le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire du Kenya devrait se r\u00e9duire plus lentement que pr\u00e9vu. Les projections indiquent un d\u00e9ficit moyen de 4,4 % du PIB pour les exercices budg\u00e9taires 2025 et 2026.<\/p>\n

Bien que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 4,4 % en 2025 constitue une am\u00e9lioration par rapport au d\u00e9ficit de 5,9 % de l\u2019exercice 2024, il repr\u00e9sente un rythme plus lent de r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses plut\u00f4t qu\u2019une augmentation des recettes. Cette tendance limite le soutien \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 de remboursement de la dette et c\u2019est une faiblesse critique pour le Kenya.<\/p>\n

Impact sur la capacit\u00e9 d’endettement du Kenya<\/h2>\n

La capacit\u00e9 d’endettement du Kenya devrait se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer davantage. En raison de l’augmentation des paiements d’int\u00e9r\u00eats r\u00e9sultant des strat\u00e9gies budg\u00e9taires du gouvernement. Le ratio int\u00e9r\u00eats\/recettes devrait passer de 30 % en 2024 \u00e0 33 % en 2025<\/b>, ce qui indique que l’\u00e9conomie est sur le point de faire face \u00e0 des contraintes budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 les efforts de la Banque centrale pour assouplir la politique mon\u00e9taire et l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du shilling k\u00e9nyan, les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt int\u00e9rieurs restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans le pays. Le plan de r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses du gouvernement du Pr\u00e9sident William Ruto est confront\u00e9 \u00e0 d\u2019\u00e9normes risques de mise en \u0153uvre, souligne Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n

Plus de la moiti\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses publiques du Kenya pour l\u2019exercice 2025 sont class\u00e9es dans la cat\u00e9gorie des services du fonds consolid\u00e9. Elles comprennent des obligations statutaires et des allocations qui ne sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pas discr\u00e9tionnaires. Les efforts visant \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses impliquent :<\/p>\n

    \n
  • La dissolution de 47 entreprises publiques<\/li>\n
  • La suspension des nouvelles embauches dans la fonction publique<\/li>\n
  • L\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du d\u00e9part \u00e0 la retraite des travailleurs ayant d\u00e9pass\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e2ge de la retraite de 60 ans<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Chocs externes et risque accru de manque de liquidit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

    Le Kenya est vuln\u00e9rable aux chocs ext\u00e9rieurs susceptibles d\u2019accro\u00eetre les besoins de d\u00e9penses tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Les mauvaises r\u00e9coltes observ\u00e9es en 2021 et 2022, la baisse de la productivit\u00e9 agricole et les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames n\u00e9cessitent des mesures de secours d\u2019urgence. Ce qui met encore davantage \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve la capacit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement.<\/p>\n

    Des d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires plus importants augmenteront les besoins d\u2019emprunt du gouvernement. Ce qui accentuera la pression sur les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt int\u00e9rieurs. Moody’s souligne que la capacit\u00e9 du gouvernement \u00e0 obtenir des financements ext\u00e9rieurs demeure incertaine<\/b>. Le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international et la Banque mondiale ont certes \u00e9t\u00e9 d’importantes sources de financement ext\u00e9rieur, mais la r\u00e9vision du budget et des politiques budg\u00e9taires du gouvernement pourrait avoir des r\u00e9percussions sur ces relations.<\/p>\n

    Les programmes du FMI devaient fournir 976 millions USD de financement ext\u00e9rieur pour l\u2019exercice 2025. Mais des retards ou des complications pourraient accro\u00eetre la d\u00e9pendance au march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur, augmentant encore les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt.<\/p>\n

    Cons\u00e9quences pour la confiance des investisseurs<\/h2>\n

    L’incertitude entourant la trajectoire budg\u00e9taire du Kenya et l’engagement du gouvernement en faveur de la consolidation budg\u00e9taire devraient peser sur le moral des investisseurs. La capacit\u00e9 du gouvernement \u00e0 acc\u00e9der \u00e0 d’autres sources de financement externe, telles que les obligations li\u00e9es au d\u00e9veloppement durable ou les obligations Samoura\u00ef, d\u00e9pendra de sa politique budg\u00e9taire et de sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

    L\u2019augmentation des besoins d\u2019emprunt et des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt int\u00e9rieurs pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019app\u00e9tit des investisseurs pour les titres d\u2019\u00c9tat. Cela met \u00e0 mal la capacit\u00e9 du gouvernement \u00e0 assurer le service de la dette int\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n

    La strat\u00e9gie du pr\u00e9sident Ruto visant \u00e0 financer des d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires plus importants par un emprunt int\u00e9rieur accru a d\u00e9j\u00e0 contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt int\u00e9rieur. Au cours de l\u2019exercice 2024, Moody\u2019s observe que le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat moyen sur les obligations du Tr\u00e9sor nouvellement \u00e9mises est de 17,8 %, contre 14,4 % pour l\u2019exercice 2023<\/b>. La n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de renouveler les obligations du Tr\u00e9sor arrivant \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance, aggrave encore les difficult\u00e9s budg\u00e9taires du gouvernement.<\/p>\n

    Cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 long terme<\/h2>\n

    Les perspectives n\u00e9gatives de Moody’s refl\u00e8tent les risques de baisse li\u00e9s \u00e0 la liquidit\u00e9 du gouvernement au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es. Des besoins de financement plus importants et des co\u00fbts d’emprunt plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s amplifient les risques, compliquant les plans de politique budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement.<\/p>\n

    L’exposition du Kenya aux risques environnementaux, sociaux et de gouvernance (ESG) complique encore davantage ses perspectives \u00e9conomiques. Les niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de pauvret\u00e9, de ch\u00f4mage et d’acc\u00e8s limit\u00e9 aux services de base, combin\u00e9s aux risques environnementaux tels que le changement climatique et les catastrophes naturelles, limitent sa r\u00e9silience budg\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n

    La faible efficacit\u00e9 de la politique budg\u00e9taire, les niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de corruption et la faiblesse de l’\u00c9tat de droit sapent \u00e9galement la confiance des investisseurs et la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, pr\u00e9vient Moody’s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    L’agence de notation Moody’s abaisse la note d’\u00e9metteur \u00e0 long terme en devises locales et \u00e9trang\u00e8res du Kenya de B3 \u00e0 Caa1, avec une perspective n\u00e9gative.\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":77858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7950],"tags":[],"location":[7961],"class_list":["post-77856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-en","location-afrique-de-lest-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMoody's abaisse la note du Kenya de B3 \u00e0 Caa1<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moody's abaisse la note du Kenya de B3 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