{"id":111872,"date":"2026-06-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/legypte-maintient-ses-taux-malgre-une-croissance-a-53-un-signal-contraste-aux-investisseurs\/"},"modified":"2026-06-05T11:00:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-05T08:00:43","slug":"legypte-maintient-ses-taux-malgre-une-croissance-a-53-un-signal-contraste-aux-investisseurs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/fr\/economie-fr\/legypte-maintient-ses-taux-malgre-une-croissance-a-53-un-signal-contraste-aux-investisseurs\/","title":{"rendered":"L’\u00c9gypte maintient ses taux malgr\u00e9 une croissance \u00e0 5,3 % : un signal contrast\u00e9 aux investisseurs"},"content":{"rendered":"

La\u00a0Banque centrale d’\u00c9gypte (CBE)<\/a>\u00a0a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 maintenant hier d’interrompre son cycle d’assouplissement, maintenant ses taux directeurs \u00e0\u00a0\u00a019 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0sur les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de nuit et\u00a020 %<\/b>\u00a0sur les pr\u00eats, selon un communiqu\u00e9 du Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire. C’est le deuxi\u00e8me maintien cons\u00e9cutif, apr\u00e8s une halte similaire en avril, en d\u00e9pit d’une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance \u00e9conomique qui s’annonce comme une aubaine pour les investisseurs mais aussi un casse-t\u00eate pour les d\u00e9cideurs.<\/p>\n

La croissance s’acc\u00e9l\u00e8re, mais l’inflation r\u00e9siste<\/b><\/h2>\n

La croissance \u00e9conomique de l’\u00c9gypte a atteint\u00a0\u00a05,3 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0lors du premier semestre de l’ann\u00e9e fiscale en cours, marquant une r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration large et acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e sur six trimestres cons\u00e9cutifs, selon le ministre de la Planification et du D\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique Ahmed Rostom, avec une progression depuis\u00a0\u00a02,4 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en FY 2023\/24 jusqu’\u00e0\u00a0\u00a04,4 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en FY 2024\/25. Le secteur manufacturier, le tourisme et les technologies de l’information ont tir\u00e9 cette expansion vers le haut.<\/p>\n

Or, l\u00e0 r\u00e9side le dilemme mon\u00e9taire : la Banque centrale s’attend \u00e0 une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l’inflation au cours du troisi\u00e8me trimestre 2026, aliment\u00e9e par des effets de base d\u00e9favorables, des pressions du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l’offre li\u00e9es aux conflits r\u00e9gionaux en cours, les mouvements de change et les mesures d’ajustement budg\u00e9taire. Le Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire a justifi\u00e9 son maintien des taux en invoquant son \u00e9valuation r\u00e9cente des d\u00e9veloppements inflationnistes et des perspectives, avec une inflation annuelle attendue pour d\u00e9passer sa fourchette cible de\u00a07 %<\/b>\u00a0(\u00b12 %) en moyenne au cours du dernier trimestre 2026 avant de d\u00e9cliner graduellement.<\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9formes structurelles attirent les investissements priv\u00e9s<\/b><\/h2>\n

Si la banque centrale freine, c’est parce que l’\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle montre des signaux encourageants pour les investisseurs. Le gouvernement vise une croissance \u00e9conomique de\u00a0\u00a05,4 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0et des investissements totaux de\u00a03,7 billions d’EGP<\/b>\u00a0pour l’exercice fiscale 2026\/27, avec une part du secteur priv\u00e9 estim\u00e9e \u00e0\u00a0\u00a059 %\u00a0<\/b>, soit\u00a02,2 billions d’EGP<\/b>. C’est un renversement significatif : la part du secteur priv\u00e9 dans les investissements totaux a augment\u00e9 \u00e0\u00a0\u00a057,3 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en 2025, contre\u00a0\u00a042,5 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en 2021.<\/p>\n

Les r\u00e9serves internationales nettes se sont \u00e9lev\u00e9es \u00e0\u00a0\u00a052,8 milliards\u00a0\u00a0USD<\/b>\u00a0\u00e0 la fin de mars 2026, et les actifs \u00e9trangers nets des banques commerciales ont \u00e9galement progress\u00e9 significativement, atteignant\u00a0\u00a012,2 milliards\u00a0\u00a0USD<\/b>\u00a0en d\u00e9cembre 2025, indiquant une plus grande capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 absorber les chocs externes. Un soutien macro\u00e9conomique rare dans une r\u00e9gion troubl\u00e9e par les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques.<\/p>\n

Le compromis des d\u00e9cideurs : stabilit\u00e9 d’abord<\/b><\/h2>\n

Le calendrier de la CBE refl\u00e8te une priorit\u00e9 claire : \u00e9viter qu’une reprise fragile ne c\u00e8de face \u00e0 des pressions inflationnistes import\u00e9es. La CBE a maintenu ses taux cl\u00e9s \u00e0\u00a0\u00a019 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0le 2 avril 2026, interrompant son cycle d’assouplissement au milieu du conflit r\u00e9gional, le Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire visant \u00e0 maintenir les attentes d’inflation ancr\u00e9es et \u00e0 restaurer la d\u00e9sinflation. Selon les estimations de la Banque centrale, l’inflation annuelle moyenne devrait diminuer \u00e0 environ\u00a0\u00a010,5 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en 2026.<\/p>\n

Mais cette pause cache aussi une \u00e9volution. Le FMI a autoris\u00e9 l’\u00c9gypte \u00e0 puiser\u00a0\u00a02,3 milliards\u00a0\u00a0USD<\/b>\u00a0d’un pr\u00eat ant\u00e9rieurement approuv\u00e9, notant que le pays a progress\u00e9 dans la restauration de la stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et la r\u00e9duction de l’inflation dans le cadre d’un programme de r\u00e9forme, qui a cr\u00e9\u00e9 une r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration \u00e9conomique g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e. Les caisses de r\u00e9serve gonflent, les r\u00e9formes structurelles trouvent preneur aupr\u00e8s du secteur priv\u00e9, et la croissance s’acc\u00e9l\u00e8re \u2014 autant de signaux que les investisseurs attendaient d’un march\u00e9 \u00e9mergent nord-africain cl\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Le test des mois \u00e0 venir : maintenir cette trajectoire sans que l’inflation ne vire au chaos, tout en permettant aux taux de revenir progressivement vers des niveaux plus normalis\u00e9s qui r\u00e9compensent le capital-risque. Pour l’instant, la CBE joue serr\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La\u00a0Banque centrale d’\u00c9gypte (CBE)\u00a0a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 maintenant hier d’interrompre son cycle d’assouplissement, maintenant ses taux directeurs \u00e0\u00a0\u00a019 %\u00a0\u00a0sur les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts de nuit et\u00a020 %\u00a0sur les pr\u00eats, selon\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":111874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7951],"tags":[],"location":[7978],"class_list":["post-111872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie-fr","location-afrique-du-nord-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nL'\u00c9gypte maintient ses taux malgr\u00e9 une croissance \u00e0 5,3 % : un signal contrast\u00e9 aux investisseurs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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