{"id":111760,"date":"2026-06-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/senegal-entre-choc-budgetaire-et-pari-petrolier-des-perspectives-de-croissance-fracturees\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T08:00:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T05:00:28","slug":"senegal-entre-choc-budgetaire-et-pari-petrolier-des-perspectives-de-croissance-fracturees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/fr\/economie-fr\/senegal-entre-choc-budgetaire-et-pari-petrolier-des-perspectives-de-croissance-fracturees\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e9n\u00e9gal : entre choc budg\u00e9taire et pari p\u00e9trolier, des perspectives de croissance fractur\u00e9es"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal entre dans une phase de d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration brutale apr\u00e8s l’euphorie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re de 2025. Le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international a abaiss\u00e9 en avril sa pr\u00e9vision de croissance pour 2026 \u00e0\u00a0\u00a02,2 %\u00a0<\/b>, contre\u00a0\u00a0\u00a03,0 %\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0anticip\u00e9s en octobre, lors des r\u00e9unions de printemps de la Banque mondiale. C’est pr\u00e8s de deux fois moins que la moyenne de l’Afrique subsaharienne, estim\u00e9e \u00e0\u00a04,3 %<\/b>\u00a0par l’institution, selon\u00a0CNBC Africa<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Dakar, de son c\u00f4t\u00e9, d\u00e9fend un sc\u00e9nario un peu plus favorable. Le minist\u00e8re de l’\u00c9conomie, du Plan et de la Coop\u00e9ration a annonc\u00e9 le 9 avril une projection de\u00a02,5 %<\/b>\u00a0pour 2026, en recul marqu\u00e9 apr\u00e8s les\u00a06,7 %<\/b>\u00a0enregistr\u00e9s en 2025, selon\u00a0Xinhua<\/a>. Le ralentissement s’explique principalement par la moindre contribution des hydrocarbures, apr\u00e8s une premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e pleine de production.<\/p>\n

Un h\u00e9ritage de dette qui p\u00e8se sur la trajectoire<\/b><\/h2>\n

Le choc remonte \u00e0 fin 2024, quand la nouvelle administration de Bassirou Diomaye Faye, \u00e9lu cinqui\u00e8me pr\u00e9sident du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal le 24 mars 2024, a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 l’ampleur des engagements masqu\u00e9s par l’\u00e9quipe de Macky Sall. La revue de transparence budg\u00e9taire couvrant 2019-2023 a mis au jour des d\u00e9ficits et un endettement public bien sup\u00e9rieurs aux chiffres officiels. Selon\u00a0Allianz Trade<\/a>, la dette publique atteindrait\u00a0132 % du PIB<\/b>\u00a0\u00e0 fin 2024, contre 80 % pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment rapport\u00e9s, l’\u00e9cart \u00e9tant estim\u00e9 entre 7 et 13 milliards de dollars.<\/p>\n

La sanction des march\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 imm\u00e9diate : l’eurobond 2031 du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal s’est \u00e9chang\u00e9 \u00e0 son plus bas en d\u00e9cembre 2025, \u00e0 61 cents sur le dollar. Le FMI a gel\u00e9 ses d\u00e9caissements, contraignant le pays \u00e0 se rabattre sur les march\u00e9s r\u00e9gionaux et les recettes fiscales. Les n\u00e9gociations sur un nouveau programme se poursuivent mais, d’apr\u00e8s\u00a0Focus Economics<\/a>, Dakar et Washington restent loin d’un terrain d’entente sur la restructuration de la dette.<\/p>\n

La bombe des subventions aux carburants<\/b><\/h2>\n

L’autre front s’est ouvert au Parlement. Le 22 mai, le ministre des Finances Cheikh Diba a averti que la facture des subventions aux carburants pourrait d\u00e9passer l’enveloppe budg\u00e9taire 2026 de\u00a0\u00a01 150 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de FCFA<\/b>\u00a0(environ\u00a0\u00a02 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de dollars) si le baril grimpait \u00e0 115 dollars. Le Premier ministre Ousmane Sonko a chiffr\u00e9 ce d\u00e9rapage \u00e0 environ un cinqui\u00e8me du budget total.<\/p>\n

\u00ab Nous ferons tout notre possible pour \u00e9viter de r\u00e9percuter les hausses de prix sur la population. \u00bb \u2014\u00a0Ousmane Sonko, Premier ministre,\u00a0<\/i>CNBC Africa<\/a><\/p>\n

Le gouvernement compte sur les recettes p\u00e9troli\u00e8res pour amortir le choc :\u00a0\u00a0135 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de FCFA suppl\u00e9mentaires \u00e0 85 dollars le baril, jusqu’\u00e0\u00a0\u00a0185 milliards\u00a0\u00a0\u00e0 115 dollars. Mais l’arbitrage politique entre soutenabilit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire et paix sociale s’annonce serr\u00e9, dans un pays dont l’\u00e9conomie p\u00e8se environ\u00a0\u00a040 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de dollars.<\/p>\n

Un pari structurel sur le p\u00e9trole, l’or et la souverainet\u00e9<\/b><\/h2>\n

Malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la baisse, certains observateurs restent constructifs sur le moyen terme. Allianz Trade table sur un rebond \u00e0\u00a0\u00a05,8 %\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0en 2026 puis\u00a0\u00a05,6 %\u00a0\u00a0en 2027, apr\u00e8s une croissance estim\u00e9e \u00e0\u00a0\u00a07,8 %\u00a0\u00a0en 2025. Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal exporte d\u00e9sormais entre 3 et\u00a0\u00a0\u00a04 million\u00a0s\u00a0\u00a0de barils par mois de p\u00e9trole et de gaz, et la valeur de ses exportations d’or a bondi de plus de\u00a0\u00a0200 %\u00a0\u00a0en glissement annuel \u00e0 octobre 2025.<\/p>\n

La croissance hors hydrocarbures et agriculture est attendue \u00e0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a03,0 %\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0en 2026, le secteur primaire progressant de\u00a0\u00a04,8 %\u00a0, le tertiaire de\u00a0\u00a02,8 %\u00a0\u00a0et le secondaire seulement de\u00a0\u00a01,0 %\u00a0. C\u00f4t\u00e9 demande, la consommation finale augmenterait de\u00a0\u00a03,4 %\u00a0\u00a0et l’investissement de\u00a0\u00a03,7 %\u00a0.<\/p>\n

L’ex\u00e9cutif Faye-Sonko mise sur deux piliers \u2014 souverainet\u00e9 et croissance \u2014 et tente de mat\u00e9rialiser un agenda social. Le budget 2026 alloue\u00a0\u00a062,8 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de FCFA<\/b>\u00a0aux infrastructures \u00e9ducatives, dont 2 500 nouvelles salles de classe, et\u00a0\u00a091 milliards\u00a0\u00a0aux centres de sant\u00e9 communautaires et \u00e0 l’ach\u00e8vement de l’h\u00f4pital d’oncologie de Diamniadio. Les mesures de baisse des prix des biens essentiels ont g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9\u00a0\u00a0342,5 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de FCFA d’\u00e9conomies pour les m\u00e9nages en 2025, et la relance de la SONACOS a recr\u00e9\u00e9 plus de 2 300 emplois directs apr\u00e8s deux ans d’inactivit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

La Banque centrale a abaiss\u00e9 ses taux d\u00e9but mars, et l’inflation est rest\u00e9e contenue apr\u00e8s \u00eatre tomb\u00e9e de\u00a0\u00a05,9 %\u00a0\u00a0en 2023 \u00e0\u00a0\u00a00,8 %\u00a0\u00a0en 2024. Reste que la fen\u00eatre est \u00e9troite : le FMI ne voit la croissance qu’\u00e0\u00a0\u00a02,3 %\u00a0\u00a0en 2027, et le Plan S\u00e9n\u00e9gal \u00c9mergent, qui ambitionne de hisser le pays au rang d’\u00e9conomie \u00e0 revenu interm\u00e9diaire d’ici 2035, repose d\u00e9sormais sur la capacit\u00e9 de Dakar \u00e0 recoudre sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re sans \u00e9touffer la demande int\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal entre dans une phase de d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration brutale apr\u00e8s l’euphorie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re de 2025. Le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international a abaiss\u00e9 en avril sa pr\u00e9vision de croissance\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":111762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7951],"tags":[],"location":[7975],"class_list":["post-111760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie-fr","location-afrique-de-louest-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nS\u00e9n\u00e9gal : entre choc budg\u00e9taire et pari p\u00e9trolier, des perspectives de croissance fractur\u00e9es<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S\u00e9n\u00e9gal : entre choc budg\u00e9taire et pari p\u00e9trolier, des perspectives de croissance fractur\u00e9es\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal entre dans une phase de d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration brutale apr\u00e8s l’euphorie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re de 2025. 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