{"id":111704,"date":"2026-06-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/shekel-au-plus-haut-depuis-30-ans-leconomie-israelienne-defie-la-guerre\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T11:00:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T08:00:46","slug":"shekel-au-plus-haut-depuis-30-ans-leconomie-israelienne-defie-la-guerre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.capmad.com\/fr\/economie-fr\/shekel-au-plus-haut-depuis-30-ans-leconomie-israelienne-defie-la-guerre\/","title":{"rendered":"Shekel au plus haut depuis 30 ans : l’\u00e9conomie isra\u00e9lienne d\u00e9fie la guerre"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le shekel isra\u00e9lien a atteint en 2026 son niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 face au dollar depuis trois d\u00e9cennies, un signal contre-intuitif apr\u00e8s plus de deux ans de conflit r\u00e9gional. Selon\u00a0Israel.com<\/a>, le taux repr\u00e9sentatif a \u00e9t\u00e9 fix\u00e9 \u00e0\u00a03,068<\/b>\u00a0le 12 f\u00e9vrier 2026, un plus bas pour le billet vert depuis novembre 1995. La dynamique s’est accentu\u00e9e depuis : d’apr\u00e8s\u00a0JNS<\/a>, le shekel s’est renforc\u00e9 jusqu’\u00e0\u00a02,90 par dollar<\/b>, son meilleur niveau depuis octobre 1993, soit une appr\u00e9ciation de\u00a09%<\/b>\u00a0depuis le d\u00e9but de l’ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

La trajectoire est spectaculaire.\u00a0Ynetnews<\/a>\u00a0note que le dollar est pass\u00e9 d’une moyenne de 3,7 shekels en avril 2025 \u00e0 environ 3,1 un an plus tard, soit un repli d’environ\u00a016%<\/b>.<\/p>\n

Des flux de capitaux qui changent d’\u00e9chelle<\/b><\/h2>\n

Le moteur principal est l’afflux de capitaux \u00e9trangers. Les investissements nets ont atteint\u00a039 milliards de dollars<\/b>\u00a0en 2025, contre 25 milliards un an plus t\u00f4t, selon\u00a0JNS<\/a>. Les institutionnels isra\u00e9liens, eux, ont liquid\u00e9 massivement leurs positions en devises pour r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrer leurs portefeuilles :\u00a0\u00a013,3 milliards\u00a0\u00a0de dollars<\/b>\u00a0de ventes nettes sur le seul dernier trimestre 2025, un record historique rapport\u00e9 par\u00a0Globes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

La toile de fond macro\u00e9conomique soutient le mouvement. Le FMI table sur une croissance isra\u00e9lienne de\u00a03,5%<\/b>\u00a0en 2026, surperformant tous les pays du G7, dont les \u00c9tats-Unis (2,3%) et la zone euro (1,3%), rapporte\u00a0CNBC<\/a>. Le ratio dette\/PIB isra\u00e9lien, \u00e0\u00a0\u00a069,8%\u00a0<\/b>, reste largement en de\u00e7\u00e0 des\u00a0\u00a0123,7%\u00a0\u00a0du G7.<\/p>\n

Le renforcement du shekel refl\u00e8te la solidit\u00e9 de l’\u00e9conomie et de la balance des paiements. Globalement, c’est bon pour l’\u00e9conomie isra\u00e9lienne. \u2014\u00a0Modi Shafrir, strat\u00e9giste en chef des march\u00e9s financiers, Bank Hapoalim<\/i><\/p>\n

Une lame \u00e0 double tranchant<\/b><\/h2>\n

La d\u00e9sinflation est l’un des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices imm\u00e9diats : l’inflation est revenue dans la cible de 1-3% de la Banque d’Isra\u00ebl, autour de 2% au lieu des 3% qu’elle aurait atteints sans le mouvement de change, selon\u00a0Ynetnews<\/a>. Mais la m\u00e9daille a son revers. Les exportateurs facturant en dollars \u2014 au premier rang desquels l’industrie technologique, vitrine du pays \u2014 voient leurs marges comprim\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9visionnistes restent haussiers sur le shekel. Israel Discount Bank table sur une fourchette de 3 \u00e0 3,12 pour un dollar fin 2026, plus agressive que le consensus Bloomberg. Tamir Hershkovitz, d’Ayalon Insurance and Finance, va plus loin :<\/p>\n

Nous avons vu \u00e0 quel point l’\u00e9conomie isra\u00e9lienne et le shekel sont sortis renforc\u00e9s d’\u00e9v\u00e9nements majeurs. La direction est claire \u2014 sous les 3 shekels par dollar, et cela se produira bien plus vite qu’on ne le pense. \u2014\u00a0Tamir Hershkovitz, SVP et directeur de la division investissements, Ayalon Insurance and Finance<\/i><\/p>\n

Lecture nuanc\u00e9e<\/b><\/h2>\n

Tous les analystes ne cr\u00e9ditent pas exclusivement la vigueur isra\u00e9lienne. Asher Blass, ancien chef \u00e9conomiste de la Banque d’Isra\u00ebl, rappelle que \u00ab le dollar est faible en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral \u00bb et que les gains du shekel face \u00e0 l’euro sont nettement moins marqu\u00e9s. Idit Moskovich, de First International Bank, abonde : la prime de risque isra\u00e9lienne baisse, mais le dollar s’affaiblit aussi face au panier global des devises, avec moins de force toutefois que sur le march\u00e9 local.<\/p>\n

Reste la variable g\u00e9opolitique. Le gouverneur de la Banque d’Isra\u00ebl, Amir Yaron, estime que si les conflits r\u00e9gionaux se d\u00e9nouent, la croissance pourrait rebondir \u00e0\u00a0\u00a05,5%\u00a0<\/b>\u00a0l’ann\u00e9e prochaine \u2014 un sc\u00e9nario qui pousserait le shekel encore plus bas face au billet vert, au grand dam des exportateurs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le shekel isra\u00e9lien a atteint en 2026 son niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 face au dollar depuis trois d\u00e9cennies, un signal contre-intuitif apr\u00e8s plus de deux ans\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":76,"featured_media":111706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7951],"tags":[],"location":[8082],"class_list":["post-111704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie-fr","location-monde-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nShekel au plus haut depuis 30 ans : l'\u00e9conomie isra\u00e9lienne d\u00e9fie la guerre<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shekel au plus haut 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